Phantsi kwempembelelo ephindwe kabini yokubuyiselwa kwemfuno kunye nokuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela, amaxabiso e-aluminium anyuke aya kwinqanaba eliphezulu leminyaka eli-13. Kwangaxeshanye, amaziko ahlukane kwicala elizayo leshishini. Abanye abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba amaxabiso e-aluminium aya kuqhubeka enyuka. Kwaye amanye amaziko aqalise ukukhupha izilumkiso zemarike yeebhere, esithi incopho ifikile.
Njengoko amaxabiso e-aluminium eqhubeka enyuka, iGoldman Sachs kunye neCitigroup zinyuse amathemba azo ngamaxabiso e-aluminium. Uqikelelo lwamva nje lweCitigroup kukuba kwiinyanga ezintathu ezizayo, amaxabiso e-aluminium anokunyuka aye kwi-US$2,900/ton, kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium eenyanga ezi-6-12 anokunyuka aye kwi-US$3,100/ton, njengoko amaxabiso e-aluminium eza kutshintsha ukusuka kwimarike yenkunzi ejikelezayo ukuya kwimarike yenkunzi eyakhiweyo. Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-aluminium kulindeleke ukuba libe yi-US$2,475/ton ngo-2021 kunye ne-US$3,010/ton kunyaka olandelayo.
UGoldman Sachs ukholelwa ukuba imbonakalo yekhonkco lobonelelo lwehlabathi isenokuwohloka, kwaye ixabiso le-aluminium yekamva kulindeleke ukuba linyuke ngakumbi, kwaye ixabiso ekujoliswe kulo le-aluminium yekamva kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezizayo linyuswe liye kwi-US$3,200/toni.
Ukongeza, ingcali yezoqoqosho yeTrafigura Group, inkampani yokuthengisa iimpahla zamazwe ngamazwe, ikwaxelele abezindaba ngoLwesibini ukuba amaxabiso e-aluminium aza kuqhubeka efikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu xa kufikwa kwimfuno enamandla kunye nokuncipha kwemveliso.
Ilizwi eliqiqileyo
Kodwa kwangaxeshanye, abantu abaninzi baqala ukubiza imakethi ukuba izole. Umntu ochaphazelekayo ophethe i-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association uthe kungekudala ukuba amaxabiso aphezulu e-aluminium aphindaphindayo asenokungabi nazinzo, kwaye kukho "iingozi ezintathu ezingaxhaswayo kunye neengozi ezimbini ezinkulu."
Umntu ophetheyo uthe izinto ezingaxhasi ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso e-aluminium ziquka: akukho kunqongophala okucacileyo kobonelelo lwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic, kwaye lonke eli shishini lenza yonke imizamo yokuqinisekisa ukubonelelwa; ukunyuka kweendleko zokuvelisa i-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngokucacileyo akuphezulu njengokunyuka kwamaxabiso; ukusetyenziswa kwangoku akwanelanga ukuxhasa amaxabiso aphezulu e-aluminium.
Ukongeza, ukwakhankanye nomngcipheko wokulungiswa kwemarike. Uthe ukunyuka okukhulu kwamaxabiso e-aluminium okwangoku kwenze iinkampani zokucubungula i-aluminium ezisezantsi zaba lusizi. Ukuba amashishini asezantsi axinene, okanye nokuba amaxabiso aphezulu e-aluminium athintela ukusetyenziswa kwesiphelo, kuya kubakho ezinye izinto, eziya kushukumisa isiseko sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaye zikhokelele ekubeni ixabiso lirhoxe ngokukhawuleza kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngexesha elifutshane, lenze umngcipheko wenkqubo.
Umntu ophetheyo ukwakhankanye nempembelelo yokuqiniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yemali yeebhanki eziphambili zehlabathi kumaxabiso e-aluminium. Uthe imeko-bume yokunciphisa imali engazange ibonwe ngaphambili yeyona nto iphambili kule meko yamaxabiso eemveliso, kwaye xa nje ukuhamba kwemali kuphelile, amaxabiso eemveliso nawo aya kujongana nemingcipheko emikhulu yenkqubo.
UJorge Vazquez, umlawuli ophetheyo weHarbor Intelligence, inkampani yeengcebiso yaseMelika, naye uyavumelana neChina Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Uthe imfuno ye-aluminium idlulile kwincopho yayo yomjikelo.
“Sibona ukuba isantya semfuno yesakhiwo eTshayina (ye-aluminium) siyawohloka”, umngcipheko wokudodobala koshishino uyanda, kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium asenokuba semngciphekweni wokuwa ngokukhawuleza, utshilo uVazquez kwinkomfa yoshishino lweHarbor ngoLwesine.
Uqhushululu lwaseGuinea luveze inkxalabo malunga nokuphazamiseka kothungelwano lokubonelela nge-bauxite kwimarike yehlabathi. Nangona kunjalo, iingcali kwishishini le-bauxite yelizwe zithe olu qhushululu alunakuba nefuthe elikhulu kwixesha elifutshane ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Septemba-13-2021