ENew DelHI: Uqoqosho lwaseIndiya oludodobalayo kunye namashishini axhomekeke kakhulu kwi-oyile ekrwada njengokuhamba ngenqwelomoya, ukuhambisa iinqanawa, iindlela kunye nokuthutha uloliwe kusenokwenzeka ukuba azuze ekwehleni ngequbuliso kwamaxabiso eoyile ekrwada ngenxa yobhubhani we-coronavirus e-China, oyena mntu ungenisa ioyile enkulu emhlabeni, zatsho izazi ngezoqoqosho, abaphathi abaziintloko kunye neengcali.
Ngamashishini ahlukeneyo ahlengahlengisa isicwangciso sawo phakathi koqikelelo lwemfuno yamandla encitshisiwe ngenxa yokuqhambuka kwecoronavirus, abarhwebi abakhulu beoyile abanje ngeIndiya bafuna ukuqhuba intengiselwano engcono. I-Indiya lilizwe lesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni ekuthengeni i-oyile kumazwe angaphandle kunye nomthengi wesine ngobukhulu werhasi yendalo engamanzi (LNG).
Imakethi yeoli ngoku ijongene nemeko ebizwa ngokuba yi-contango, apho amaxabiso aphantsi kuneekhontrakthi zexesha elizayo.
"Uqikelelo olwenziwe zii-arhente ezininzi lucebisa ukuba imfuno ekrwada yaseTshayina ye-Q1 iya kuhla nge-15-20%, nto leyo ekhokelela ekucuthekeni kwemfuno ekrwada yehlabathi. Oku kubonakalisa amaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada kunye ne-LNG, zombini zilungile eIndiya. Oku kuya kunceda iIndiya kwiiparamitha zayo zoqoqosho olukhulu ngokuqulatha intsilelo yangoku kwi-akhawunti, ukugcinwa kwe-akhawunti ephantsi, ukugcinwa kwe-Miqurash, kugcinwe ngokusemthethweni, iqabane e Deloitte India.
I-Arhente yezaMandla yeHlabathi (i-IEA) kunye noMbutho waMazwe aThumela iPetroleum ngaphandle (i-Opec) banqumle imbonakalo yokukhula kwemfuno yeoli yehlabathi kulandela ukuqhambuka kwecoronavirus.
"Amacandelo afana neenqwelomoya, iipeyinti, iiseramikhi, ezinye iimveliso zamashishini, njl.njl. ziya kuxhamla kulawulo lwexabiso elibi," wongeze watsho uMishra.
I-Indiya liziko lokucoca elingundoqo lase-Asia, elinomthamo ofakelweyo ongaphezulu kwe-249.4 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka (mtpa) ngokusebenzisa iindawo zokucokisa ezingama-23. Iindleko zebhaskithi ekrwada yaseIndiya, ekwi-avareji yeedola ezingama-56.43 kunye ne-69.88 yeedola ngomphanda kwi-FY18 kunye ne-FY19, ngokulandelelanayo, i-avareji yeedola ezingama-65.52 ngoDisemba ka-2019, ngokwedatha evela kwiSeli yoCwangciso lwePetroleum kunye noHlalutyo. Ixabiso laliyi-$ 54.93 umgqomo nge-13 kaFebruwari. Ingobozi yaseIndiya imele umndilili we-Oman, iDubai kunye neBrent crude.
“Kwixesha elidlulileyo, ixabiso leoli elibi libone inzuzo yenqwelomoya iphucuka kakhulu,” utshilo uKinjal Shah, usekela mongameli weshishini kwiarhente yokukala i-ICRA Ltd.
Ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho, ishishini lokuhamba ngenqwelomoya laseIndiya libone ukukhula kwezithuthi zabakhweli nge-3.7% ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-144 yezigidi zabakhweli.
"Eli inokuba lixesha elihle lokuba iinqwelo-moya zihlawule ilahleko. Iinqwelomoya zingasebenzisa oku ukubuyisela ilahleko, ngelixa abahambi banokusebenzisa lo mzuzu ukucwangcisa uhambo njengoko iindleko zetikiti zomoya ziya kuba luncedo ngakumbi, "watsho uMark Martin, umsunguli kunye ne-CEO eMartin Consulting Llc, umcebisi ngeenqwelomoya.
Ukuqhambuka kwe-coronavirus e-China kuye kwanyanzela iifemu zamandla apho ukuba zirhoxise izivumelwano zokuhambisa kunye nokunciphisa imveliso. Oku kube nefuthe kumaxabiso e-oyile ehlabathi kunye nezinga lokuthumela ngenqanawa. Uxinzelelo lwezorhwebo kunye nokucotha koqoqosho lwehlabathi nako kukwaxhaphakile kwiimarike zamandla.
Amagosa kwiBhunga leMichiza yaseIndiya, iqumrhu loshishino, lathi i-India ixhomekeke kwi-China kwiikhemikhali kulo lonke ikhonkco lexabiso, kunye nesabelo selizwe ekuthengisweni kwempahla ukusuka kwi-10-40%. Icandelo lepetrochemical lisebenza njengentsika kwamanye amacandelo ahlukeneyo okuvelisa kunye nalawo angayenziyo afana neziseko ezingundoqo, iimoto, amalaphu kunye nezinto ezihlala zisetyenziswa ngabathengi.
"Uluhlu olubanzi lwezinto eziluhlaza kunye nabalamli bathunyelwa eChina. Nangona, okwangoku, iinkampani ezingenisa ezi zinto azichaphazeleki kakhulu, i-chain chain chain iyancipha. Ngoko ke, banokuziva benempembelelo ukuya phambili ukuba imeko ayiphucukanga, "watsho uSudhir Shenoy, umongameli welizwe kunye ne-CEO ye-Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Oku kunokunceda abavelisi basekhaya beekhemikhali zerabha, i-electrode yegraphite, i-carbon black, iidayi kunye ne-pigments njengoko ukuthengwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwe-China okusezantsi kunokunyanzela abathengi ukuba bazifumanele ekhaya.
Amaxabiso asezantsi akrwada nawo azisa iindaba ezimnandi kwi-exchequer karhulumente phakathi kokunqongophala kwengeniso kunye nokunyuka kwentsilelo yemali. Ngenxa yokukhula okukhawulezileyo kokuqokelelwa kwengeniso, umphathiswa wezemali u-Nirmala Sitharaman, ngelixa enikezela ngohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lweManyano, wacela igatya lokubaleka ukuba lithathe indawo ye-50-based leeway kwintsilelo yemali ka-2019-2020, ithatha uqikelelo oluhlaziyiweyo ukuya kwi-3.8% ye-GDP.
Irhuluneli ye-RBI uShaktikanta Das ngoMgqibelo uthe ukuhla kwamaxabiso eoli kuya kuba nefuthe elihle ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso. "Eyona spike iphambili ivela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okutya, oko kukuthi, imifuno kunye nezinto zeprotheyini. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezingundoqo kuye kwaqina kancinci ngenxa yohlaziyo lwamaxabiso e-telecom," wongeze watsho.
Kusindwa kukuhla kwecandelo lezemveliso, imveliso yaseIndiya iye yangena kwikhontrakthi ngoDisemba, ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso entengo kunyuke kangangenyanga yesithandathu ilandelelana ngoJanuwari, nto leyo ephakamisa amathandabuzo malunga nenkqubo yokubuyisela uqoqosho olusakhulayo. Ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseIndiya kuqikelelwa yi-Ofisi yeSizwe yezoBalo ukuba ifikelele kwi-11 yeminyaka ephantsi ye-5% ngo-2019-2020 ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kakubi kunye nemfuno yotyalo-mali.
UMadan Sabnavis, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwi-CARE Ratings, uthe amaxabiso aphantsi eoli abe yintsikelelo eIndiya. "Nangona kunjalo, uxinzelelo oluphezulu alunakuthintelwa, kunye nokunciphisa okulindelwe yi-Opec kunye namanye amazwe athumela ngaphandle. Ke ngoko, kufuneka sigxile kwindlela yokunyusa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwaye sijonge ukonyusa unobangela wamaxabiso e-oyile esezantsi, oko kukuthi, i-coronavirus, kwaye sityhalele iimpahla zethu e-China, ngelixa sijonge ezinye iindlela kubanikezeli bempahla ngaphandle.
Ixhalabele imeko yemfuno ye-oyile, i-Opec inokuqhubela phambili intlanganiso yayo nge-5-6 kaMatshi, kunye nephaneli yayo yobugcisa icebisa ukucuthwa okwethutyana kulungiselelo lwe-Opec+.
"Ngenxa yokungeniswa kwentengiso enempilo evela eMpuma, impembelelo kwiinqanawa zekhonteyina ezifana ne-JNPT (i-Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) iya kuba phezulu, ngelixa impembelelo kwi-port yase-Mundra iya kunqunyulwa," kusho u-Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, umlawuli kunye ne-practice lead yezothutho kunye ne-logistics kwi-Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Icala lelokuba ezinye zemveliso zinokusuka eTshayina ziye eIndiya okwethutyana."
Ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso akrwada ngenxa yokunyuka kwengxabano phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran yayihlala ixesha elifutshane, ukuqhambuka kwe-coronavirus kunye nemveliso esele iza kusikwa ngamazwe e-Opec yazise into yokungaqiniseki.
"Nangona ixabiso leoli liphantsi, izinga lotshintshiselwano (i-rupee ngokumelene nedola) liyenyuka, nto leyo ekhokelela kwiindleko eziphezulu. Sikhululekile xa i-rupee imalunga ne-65-70 ngokumelene nedola. Ekubeni inxalenye enkulu yeendleko zethu, kubandakanywa ne-fuel ye-aviation, ihlawulwe ngokweedola, utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle luyinkalo ebalulekileyo kwiindleko zethu, "umphathi ophezulu kwi-airline ye-airline esekelwe eNew Delhi.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, ukuphinda kunyuke imfuno yeoli kunokuphinda kunyuse amaxabiso anokuthi aqhubele phambili nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokwenzakalisa imfuno.
Amaxabiso e-oyile aphezulu anempembelelo engathanga ngqo ngemveliso ephezulu kunye neendleko zothutho kwaye abeke uxinzelelo olunyukayo ekwenyukeni kwamaxabiso okutya. Nawaphi na amalinge okuthomalalisa umthwalo kubathengi ngokuthotywa kwerhafu yempahla yepetroli nedizili ingaphazamisa ukuqokelelwa kwengeniso.
URavindra Sonavane, uKalpana Pathak, u-Asit Ranjan Mishra, uShreya Nandi, uRhik Kundu, uNavadha Pandey kunye noGireesh Chandra Prasad bafake isandla kweli bali.
Ngoku ubhalisele iileta zethu zeendaba. Ukuba awukwazi ukufumana nayiphi na i-imeyile kwicala lethu, nceda ujonge ifolda ye-spam.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-28-2021