ENew Delhi: Uqoqosho olucothayo lwaseIndiya kunye namashishini axhomekeke kakhulu kwioyile ekrwada efana neenqwelo moya, ukuthunyelwa kweenqanawa, ukuthuthwa kwendlela kunye noololiwe kusenokwenzeka ukuba azuze ngokuhla ngequbuliso kwamaxabiso eoyile ekrwada ngenxa yobhubhane we-coronavirus eTshayina, ilizwe elingenisa ioyile kakhulu kwihlabathi liphela, batsho oosoqoqosho, abaphathi abakhulu kunye neengcali.
Njengoko amashishini ahlukeneyo etshintsha icebo lawo ngelixa uqikelelo lwemfuno yamandla luncitshiswa ngenxa yokuqhambuka kwe-coronavirus, abathengisi abakhulu beoyile abanjengeIndiya bafuna ukwenza isivumelwano esingcono. I-India lilizwe lesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni elingenisa ioyile kwaye lilizwe lesine ngobukhulu elithenga igesi yendalo enyibilikisiweyo (LNG).
Imarike yeoyile okwangoku ijongene nemeko ebizwa ngokuba yi-contango, apho amaxabiso aphantsi kuneekhontrakthi zexesha elizayo.
“Uqikelelo lwee-arhente ezahlukeneyo lubonisa ukuba imfuno ye-crude yekota yokuqala yaseTshayina iya kwehla nge-15-20%, nto leyo ekhokelela ekuncipheni kwemfuno ye-crude yehlabathi. Oku kubonakala kumaxabiso e-crude kunye ne-LNG, zombini eziluncedo eIndiya. Oku kuya kunceda iIndiya kwimilinganiselo yayo yezoqoqosho ngokuqulatha i-current account deficit, ukugcina ulawulo lokutshintshiselana oluzinzileyo kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso,” utshilo uDebasish Mishra, iqabane kwiDeloitte India.
I-International Energy Agency (IEA) kunye ne-Organization of the Petroleum Export Countries (Opec) ziye zanciphisa imbono yokukhula kwemfuno yeoyile kwihlabathi liphela emva kokuqhambuka kwe-coronavirus.
“Amacandelo afana neenqwelo moya, iipeyinti, izinto zodongwe, ezinye iimveliso zoshishino, njl.njl. angazuza kulawulo lwamaxabiso olungenabungozi,” wongeze watsho uMishra.
I-India yindawo ephambili yokucocwa kwe-Asia, enomthamo ofakiweyo ongaphezulu kwe-249.4 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka (mtpa) kwiindawo zokucocwa ezingama-23. Ixabiso lebhasikithi yaseIndiya ye-crude, engumndilili we-$56.43 kunye ne-$69.88 ngebhereli kwi-FY18 kunye ne-FY19, ngokwahlukeneyo, ingumndilili we-$65.52 ngoDisemba 2019, ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Ixabiso yayiyi-$54.93 ngebhereli nge-13 kaFebruwari. Ibhasikithi yaseIndiya imele umndilili we-Oman, Dubai kunye ne-Brent crude.
“Ngaphambili, ixabiso leoyile elilungileyo liye labona inzuzo yeenqwelo-moya iphucuka kakhulu,” utshilo uKinjal Shah, usekela-mongameli we-corporate ratings kwi-arhente ye-rating ICRA Ltd.
Ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho, ishishini lokuhamba ngeenqwelo moya eIndiya libone ukukhula kwe-3.7% yabakhweli ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-144 yezigidi zabakhweli.
“Eli lingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuba iinkampani zeenqwelo-moya zibuyisele ilahleko. Iinkampani zeenqwelo-moya zingasebenzisa oku ukubuyisela ilahleko, ngelixa abahambi bangasebenzisa eli xesha ukucwangcisa uhambo njengoko ixabiso lamatikiti eenqwelo-moya liza kuba lula,” utshilo uMark Martin, umseki kunye ne-CEO kwiMartin Consulting Llc, umcebisi weenqwelo-moya.
Ukuqhambuka kwe-coronavirus eTshayina kunyanzele iinkampani zamandla apho ukuba zimise iikhontrakthi zokuhambisa nokunciphisa imveliso. Oku kuye kwachaphazela amaxabiso eoyile yehlabathi kunye namazinga okuthunyelwa kwempahla. Iingxaki zorhwebo kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi olucothayo nazo zixhomekeke kwiimarike zamandla.
Amagosa e-Indian Chemical Council, umbutho weshishini, athi i-India ixhomekeke kwi-China ngeekhemikhali kulo lonke uthotho lwexabiso, apho isabelo selizwe ekungenisweni kwemveliso siqala kwi-10-40%. Icandelo le-petrochemical lisebenza njengomqolo wezinye iindawo ezahlukeneyo zokwenza imveliso kunye nezingaveliyo ezifana neziseko zophuhliso, iimoto, amalaphu kunye nezinto ezihlala ixesha elide ezisetyenziswa ngabathengi.
“Iintlobo ngeentlobo zezinto ezikrwada kunye nabalamli bathunyelwa bevela eTshayina. Nangona, ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iinkampani ezingenisa ezi zinto azichaphazeleki kakhulu, uthungelwano lwazo lokubonelela luyaphela. Ngoko ke, banokuziva benempembelelo xa besiya phambili ukuba imeko ayiphucuki,” utshilo uSudhir Shenoy, umongameli welizwe kunye ne-CEO yeDow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Oku kunokunceda abavelisi basekhaya beekhemikhali zerabha, ii-electrode zegrafiti, umnyama wekhabhoni, iidayi kunye neepigment njengoko ukuthengwa okuncinci kwemveliso evela eTshayina kunokunyanzela abathengi ukuba bazithengele apha ekhaya.
Amaxabiso aphantsi e-crude azisa iindaba ezimnandi kwingxowa-mali karhulumente phakathi kokungabikho kwemali engenayo kunye nokungabikho kwemali eyaneleyo. Ngenxa yokukhula okucothayo kokuqokelelwa kwemali engenayo, umphathiswa wezemali uNirmala Sitharaman, ngelixa enika uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lweManyano, ucele isivakalisi sokubaleka ukuze kuthathwe ithuba elisekelwe kumanqaku angama-50 kwi-financial deficit ka-2019-20, nto leyo ethatha uqikelelo oluhlaziyiweyo ukuya kwi-3.8% ye-GDP.
Urhuluneli we-RBI uShaktikanta Das ngoMgqibelo uthe ukwehla kwamaxabiso eoyile kuya kuba nefuthe elihle ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso. “Ukunyuka okukhulu kuvela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okutya, oko kukuthi, imifuno kunye nezinto zeproteni. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphambili kuye kwanda kancinci ngenxa yokuhlaziywa kweerhafu zonxibelelwano,” wongeze watsho.
Ixinezelekile kukuhla kwecandelo lemveliso, imveliso yefektri yaseIndiya yehla ngoDisemba, ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eevenkile kukhawuleze inyanga yesithandathu ilandelelana ngoJanuwari, nto leyo ephakamisa amathandabuzo malunga nenkqubo yokubuyisela uqoqosho olusakhulayo. I-Ofisi yeSizwe yezeNkcukacha-manani iqikelela ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseIndiya kufike kwinqanaba eliphantsi leminyaka eli-11 le-5% ngo-2019-20 ngenxa yokucotha kokusetyenziswa kwemveliso kunye notyalo-mali.
UMadan Sabnavis, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwi-CARE Ratings, uthe amaxabiso aphantsi eoyile abe yintsikelelo eIndiya. “Nangona kunjalo, uxinzelelo oluphezulu alunakushiywa ngaphandle, kunye nokuncitshiswa okuthile okulindelwe yi-OPEC kunye namanye amazwe athumela ngaphandle. Ke ngoko, kufuneka sigxile kwindlela yokunyusa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwaye sijonge ukusebenzisa unobangela wokwehla kwamaxabiso eoyile, oko kukuthi, i-coronavirus, kwaye sityhalele iimpahla zethu eTshayina, ngelixa sikhangela ezinye iindlela zokubonelela ngeenkonzo zokungenisa impahla ngaphandle. Ngethamsanqa, ngenxa yokuhamba kwemali rhoqo, uxinzelelo kwi-rupee aluyongxaki,” wongeze watsho.
Ixhalabile ngemeko yemfuno yeoyile, i-Opec isenokuqhubela phambili intlanganiso yayo yomhla wesi-5 ukuya kowesi-6 kuMatshi, apho iphaneli yayo yobugcisa icebisa ukuncitshiswa okwethutyana kwilungiselelo le-Opec+.
“Ngenxa yorhwebo olusempilweni oluvela eMpuma, impembelelo kwizibuko zeekhonteyina ezifana neJNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) iya kuba phezulu, ngelixa impembelelo kwizibuko laseMundra iya kuba ncinci,” utshilo uJagannarayan Padmanabhan, umlawuli kunye nenkokeli yezothutho kunye nothutho kwiCrisil Infrastructure Advisory. “Icala elibi kukuba ezinye zemveliso zinokutshintsha zisuka eTshayina ziye eIndiya okwethutyana.”
Nangona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aluhlaza ngenxa yokunyuka kwengxabano phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran kuthathe ixesha elifutshane, ukuqhambuka kwe-coronavirus kunye nokuncitshiswa kwemveliso okuzayo ngamazwe e-OPEC kuye kwazisa ukungaqiniseki.
“Nangona amaxabiso eoyile esezantsi, izinga lokutshintshiselana (i-rupee xa ithelekiswa nedola) liyenyuka, nto leyo ekhokelela kwiindleko eziphezulu. Sikhululekile xa i-rupee imalunga ne-65-70 xa ithelekiswa nedola. Ekubeni uninzi lweendleko zethu, kuquka neyokubiza ipetroli yeenqwelo moya, ihlawulwa ngokwedola, ukutshintshiselana kwamanye amazwe luphawu olubalulekileyo kwiindleko zethu,” utshilo umphathi omkhulu kwinkampani yeenqwelo moya ebhajethi ese-New Delhi ngemeko yokungaziwa kwegama lakhe.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, ukubuya kwemfuno yeoyile kunokunyusa amaxabiso anokunyusa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaye onakalise imfuno.
Amaxabiso aphezulu eoyile nawo anempembelelo engathanga ngqo ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zemveliso nezothutho kwaye abangela uxinzelelo oluphezulu ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okutya. Naluphi na umzamo wokunciphisa umthwalo kubathengi ngokunciphisa irhafu yepetroli nedizili uya kuphazamisa ukuqokelelwa kwengeniso.
URavindra Sonavane, uKalpana Pathak, u-Asit Ranjan Mishra, uShreya Nandi, uRhik Kundu, uNavadha Pandey kunye noGireesh Chandra Prasad bafake isandla kweli bali.
Ngoku ubhalisele iincwadana zethu zeendaba. Ukuba awukwazi ukufumana i-imeyile evela kuthi, nceda ujonge ifolda ye-spam.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-28-2021