I-graphitized petroleum coke ijongene nemingcipheko ethile ye-geopolitical kunye ne-resource monopoly, apho imithombo yale mingcipheko inokuhlalutywa ukusuka kwiinkalo ezine: ukusasazwa kwezixhobo, utshintsho lwe-geopolitical landscape, ulawulo lwe-industrial chain, kunye nemiqobo yemigaqo-nkqubo kunye nezorhwebo.
I. Ukusasazwa kweZixhobo okungalinganiyo okukhokelela ekuxhomekekeni kobonelelo kwiindawo ezithile
Njengemveliso ephuma kwimveliso ye-oyile ekrwada, umthamo wemveliso ye-petroleum coke unxulumene ngokuthe ngqo nomthamo we-oyile ekrwada. Ukusasazwa okungalinganiyo kwezixhobo ze-oyile ekrwada kwihlabathi liphela kubangela ukuxhomekeka okuphezulu kobonelelo lwe-oyile ekrwada kwiindawo ezivelisa ioyile ekrwada kunye neendawo zokucubungula. Umzekelo:
- Imveliso Egxile KwiPetroleum Coke eTshayina: Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba ka-2024, imveliso yepetroleum coke yaseTshayina yayigxile kakhulu eMpuma China, eMzantsi China, naseMantla-mpuma China, isenza ngaphezulu kwe-80% yexabiso lilonke, apho iMpuma China inegalelo elingaphezulu kwe-55%. Olu xinzelelo lwengingqi lwenza ukuba ukuguquguquka kobonelelo lwengingqi kube nefuthe kwimarike yesizwe.
- Ukuxhomekeka Okuphezulu Kokungenisa Izinto: I-coke yepetroleum eveliswe yiTshayina ayinakukwazi ukuhlangabezana ngokupheleleyo neemfuno zasekhaya, kunye nenxalenye yomsantsa wokuveliswa nokusetyenziswa kwayo ongezelelweyo yimpahla engeniswayo. Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba ka-2024, nangona ukungeniswa kwe-coke yepetroleum eTshayina kwehle nge-15.22% unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokuxhomekeka ngaphandle lihlale lingaphezulu kwe-25%, kunye ne-coke yepetroleum enesulfure ephezulu ebangela ngaphezulu kwe-70% yezinto ezingeniswayo ngo-2023. Imithombo yokungenisa izinto ibandakanya i-United States, iSaudi Arabia, iKhanada, kunye nezinye. Iingxabano zezopolitiko okanye utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo kula mazwe zinokuphazamisa ngokuthe ngqo uzinzo lokubonelela.
II. Utshintsho kwiNdawo yezePolitiki oluyandisa iingozi zobonelelo
Utshintsho kwimeko yezopolitiko yamandla ehlabathi lubeka umngcipheko kwikhonkco lokubonelela nge-petroleum coke:
- Ukhuphiswano Oluqinisiweyo Lwezixhobo: Njengezinto ezisetyenziswa ngamandla namakhemikhali, ukunikezelwa kwe-petroleum coke kunokuchaphazeleka lukhuphiswano lwezixhobo. Umzekelo, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma kunye nobudlelwane obuxineneyo phakathi kweRashiya namazwe aseNtshona kunokukhokelela ekuphazamisekeni kokunikezelwa kweoyile ekrwada okanye ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso, nto leyo echaphazela imveliso ye-petroleum coke.
- Iindlela Zothutho Ezivaliweyo: Iingxabano zezopolitiko zingaphazamisa iindlela zothutho lwe-petroleum coke, zonyuse iindleko zothutho kunye nexesha, kwaye zibangele nokuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa. Umzekelo, ukunyuka kweengozi zokhuseleko kwindlela yokuthumela i-petroleum coke e-Red Sea kunokuchaphazela ukusebenza kakuhle kokuthunyelwa kwe-petroleum coke e-Middle East e-China.
III. Iingozi zeMonopoly kwiiNxibelelwano ezibalulekileyo zeCandelo leMizi-mveliso
Amakhonkco athile okanye ubuchwepheshe kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso ye-petroleum coke bunokulawulwa ngamashishini okanye amazwe ambalwa, nto leyo eyenza imeko yokuba yi-monopoly:
- Ukuzimela kwi-Upstream Crude Oil Supply: Imarike ye-oyile ekrwada yehlabathi ilawulwa ngamazwe ambalwa avelisa ioyile, apho imibutho efana ne-OPEC ichaphazela amaxabiso eoyile ngemigaqo-nkqubo yemveliso, ngaloo ndlela ilawula ngokungathanga ngqo iindleko ze-petroleum coke. Umzekelo, ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso ye-OPEC kunokukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso eoyile ekrwada, okunyusa iindleko zemveliso ye-petroleum coke.
- Imiqobo yoBugcisa kwiMidstream Processing: Ubuchwepheshe bokucubungula i-petroleum coke, obufana nokucola okulibazisekileyo kunye ne-calcination, bunemiqobo ethile, kwaye amashishini anobuchule bobuchwephesha obuphambili anokufumana iingenelo zemarike. Umzekelo, nangona iTshayina ikhokela kubuchwepheshe be-graphitization, isaxhomekeke ekungenisweni kwe-needle coke ephezulu kunye nezinye izinto ezibalulekileyo, nto leyo ebeka umngcipheko wobuchwephesha bodwa.
- Imarike yesicelo esiNxibeleleneyo: Ukusetyenziswa kwe-coke yepetroliyam kugxininiswe kakhulu kwii-anode ezibhakiweyo kwangaphambili kunye namafutha, nto leyo ethetha i-77% kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2024. Ishishini le-aluminium ye-electrolytic, njengomsebenzisi oyintloko wee-anode ezibhakiweyo kwangaphambili, linokuchaphazela imfuno ye-coke yepetroliyam ngenxa yemida yamandla ayo emveliso (umz., umgca obomvu waseTshayina ongama-45 ezigidi zeetoni), okwenza i-monopoly esecaleni kwemfuno.
IV. Imiqobo yoMgaqo-nkqubo kunye noRhwebo ethintela ukungabi namali kwiMarike
Imigaqo-nkqubo kunye nemiqobo yorhwebo kumazwe ahlukeneyo inokwenza kube mandundu ukwahlulwahlulwa kweemarike kunye nokulawula kuphela kwimarike ye-petroleum coke:
- Imiqathango yoMgaqo-nkqubo weNdalo: “Isicwangciso sokuSebenza soLondolozo lwaMandla sika-2024-2025 kunye nokuNcitshiswa kweKhabhoni” saseTshayina simisela ukuba, ngaphandle kweeyunithi ezikhoyo ezizibonelela ngokwazo kumashishini e-petrochemical, i-coke yepetroliyam ene-sulfur eninzi ayizukusetyenziswa njengepetroliyam. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo uthintela ukusetyenziswa kwe-coke yepetroliyam ene-sulfur eninzi kwicandelo lepetroliyam, apho imfuno ethile itshintshela kwi-coke yepetroliyam ene-sulfur encinci, nto leyo enokubangela ukuba kubekho i-monopoly kwimarike ye-coke yepetroliyam ene-sulfur encinci.
- Ulawulo Lokuthunyelwa Kwempahla Ngaphandle Neemfazwe Zorhwebo: Amazwe amakhulu athumela impahla ngaphandle anokuthintela ukuhanjiswa kwe-coke yepetroliyam ngolawulo lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okanye anyuse iirhafu ngemfazwe zorhwebo, nto leyo echaphazela ukungabi namali kwimarike yehlabathi. Umzekelo, iirhafu zase-US eTshayina zinokubangela ukuba iindleko ze-coke yepetroliyam engeniswe eTshayina zinyuke, nto leyo eyonakalisa ukhuphiswano lwayo lwamazwe ngamazwe.
- Izithintelo zokuthumela ngaphandle kwezixhobo: Amazwe atyebileyo ngezixhobo anokunciphisa ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ukuze akhusele amashishini awo asekhaya, nto leyo ekhokelela kwiingxaki zokubonelela ngezixhobo kwihlabathi liphela. Umzekelo, izithintelo zase-Indonesia zokuthumela ngaphandle i-nickel ore, nangona zingabandakanyi ngqo i-petroleum coke, zibonisa umkhwa wamazwe athumela ngaphandle izixhobo esebenzisa izixhobo zomgaqo-nkqubo ukulawula iimarike, nto leyo enokubangela iingozi ezifanayo kwezinye izixhobo ezifana ne-petroleum coke.
Ixesha leposi: Novemba-24-2025