Ziziphi iindlela ezibangela amaxabiso kunye nezinto eziphambili ezichaphazela i-graphitized petroleum coke?

Uhlalutyo lweeNdlela zeXabiso kunye neZinto eziPhambili ezichaphazela iGraphitized Petroleum Coke (Ukusuka kwiNgcinga ka-2025)

I. Iindlela zokuThenga: Ukunyuka kwexesha elifutshane kulandelwa kukwahluka, ixesha elide kuxhaswe ngumsantsa phakathi kwemfuno yobonelelo

1. Ukusebenza kwexabiso ngo-2025

• I-coke ene-sulfur ephantsi ikhokela ukuqhubela phambili: Iqhutywa kukwanda kwemfuno yezixhobo ze-anode kwizithuthi ezintsha zamandla, amaxabiso e-coke ene-sulfur ephantsi anyuke ngokukhawuleza ekuqaleni kuka-2025. Umzekelo, ixabiso le-coke ene-sulfur ephantsi evela kwi-Fushun Petrochemical lenyuke ukusuka kwi-3,000 yuan/ton ngoDisemba ka-2024 ukuya kwi-3,500 yuan/ton ngoJanuwari ka-2025, kunye namaxabiso athile efandesi adlula i-4,200 yuan/ton.
• I-sulfur coke ephakathi ukuya phezulu ilandela oku: I-Mid-sulfur coke yayixabisa phakathi kwe-2,400 kunye ne-2,900 yuan/ton, ngelixa i-high-sulfur coke yayiphakathi kwe-1,300 ukuya kwi-1,800 yuan/ton. Nangona ukunyuka kwabo kwakuphantsi kunokwe-low-sulfur coke, babonise ukunyuka ngokubanzi.
• Ixhaswa ngumsantsa wemfuno yokubonelela ngeenkonzo: Umsantsa wemfuno yokubonelela ngeenkonzo zeetoni ezingama-870,000 ngo-2025 kulindeleke ukuba uqhubele ixabiso eliphakathi lonyaka ukuya kutsho ku-3,000–4,000 yuan/ton.

2. Ithemba lonyaka ka-2026

• Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphakathi: Umsantsa wemfuno yobonelelo kulindeleke ukuba unciphe uye kwiitoni ezingama-660,000, kodwa isabelo semfuno entsha yamandla kulindeleke ukuba sinyuke siye kwi-21%, nto leyo enyusa ixabiso eliphakathi lonyaka liye kuluhlu lwe-3,200–4,200 yuan/ton, kunye ne-low-sulfur coke enokudlula i-4,000 yuan/ton.
• Ukwahluka kolwakhiwo: Amaxabiso e-coke ene-sulfur ephezulu aya kuhlala ephantsi ngenxa yobuninzi bokufumaneka, atshintshatshintsha phakathi kwe-1,500–2,000 yuan/ton.

II. Izinto Eziphambili Ezinefuthe: Ukudibana Okuthathu Kwemfuno, Ukubonelela, kunye Nomgaqo-nkqubo

1. Icala leMfuno: Ukukhula koLwakhiwo oluqhutywa yiNguquko yaMandla amatsha

• Izixhobo ze-anode zebhetri yeLithium-ion: Ngowama-2024, imfuno yezinto ze-anode yayibalelwa kwi-8% yokusetyenziswa kwe-petroleum coke iyonke, kwaye esi sabelo kulindeleke ukuba sinyuke siye kwi-11% ngo-2026. Ukongezwa kwamandla amatsha kwicandelo elitsha lezithuthi zamandla kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla okungaphezulu kwe-5.96 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka kuya kunyusa ngokuthe ngqo imfuno ye-low-sulfur coke.
• Ubuthathaka kumacandelo emveli: Imfuno kumacandelo ekhabhoni kunye nepetroli isaqhubeka incipha, amandla okuthenga anciphile ngenxa yenzuzo embi. Umzekelo, amashishini ekhabhoni anciphise ukuthengwa phakathi kwemfuno ebuthathaka kumashishini e-aluminium (amaxabiso e-aluminium alungiswa ngo-2025), ngelixa icandelo lamafutha litshintshe i-coke yamafutha ene-sulfur eninzi ngamalahle angabizi kakhulu (umyinge omalunga ne-500 yuan/ton ngo-2025).

2. Icala Lokubonelela: Ukukhula Komthamo Olinganiselweyo kunye Noxinzelelo Lweendleko

• Ukwandiswa kancinci kwamandla asekhaya: Akukho yunithi zintsha zokucola ezicwangciselwe u-2025, kwaye irhafu ephezulu yokungenisa ioyile yepetroli (eqala ukusebenza nge-1 kaJanuwari 2025) inciphise amazinga okusebenza kwiindawo zokucola ezizimeleyo, apho abacoci baseShandong befumana ukwehla okukhulu, nto leyo ethintela imveliso yasekhaya.
• Ukungabikho ngokwaneleyo kweemveliso zaphesheya: Imveliso ye-coke ene-sulfur ephantsi inqongophele eYurophu nase-United States ngenxa yomxholo ophezulu we-sulfur kwi-oyile ekrwada, nto leyo ekhokelela ekubeni ixhomekeke kakhulu ekuthengweni kwemveliso kwamanye amazwe.

3. Icala leMigaqo-nkqubo: Imiqathango emibini evela kwiMigaqo-nkqubo yeNdalo kunye neyoRhwebo

• Imida yemveliso yokusingqongileyo: Imfuno ye-petroleum coke ene-sulfur ephantsi (enomxholo we-sulfur <0.5%) inyukile ngenxa yokuthobela kwayo imigangatho yokusingqongileyo, ngelixa amashishini ane-carbon ephezulu afana ne-electrolytic aluminium ejongene nokuncitshiswa kwemveliso phantsi kwemiqathango yomgaqo-nkqubo, nto leyo echaphazela ngokungathanga ngqo imfuno ye-petroleum coke.
• Ukungqubana kwezorhwebo: Nangona imfuno yemarike yamazwe ngamazwe ecothayo okanye ukuhla kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwexabiso kunokuphembelela amaxabiso asekhaya, uhlengahlengiso lwerhafu yeoyile yepetroli ka-2025 lunyuse ngokuthe ngqo iindleko zabacoci abazimeleyo, lwaba ngumqhubi ophambili wokuncipha kokunikezelwa kwemveliso.

4. Icala leendleko: Ukudluliselwa kokuguquguquka kwexabiso leoyile ekrwada

• Inkxaso yeendleko ezibuthathaka: Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo leoyile ekrwada yeBrent kulindeleke ukuba libe yi-67/barrelin2025 kunye ne-mayfallto51/barrel ngo-2026 (uqikelelo lwe-EIA), oluya kunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-petroleum coke.
• Ukuguquguquka kwenzuzo yeendawo zokucoca: Xa amaxabiso eoli ekrwada ephezulu, abacoci bonyusa imveliso yeoyile ekhaphukhaphu ngokucola okulibazisekileyo, okwandisa ukunikezelwa kwe-coke yepetroleum. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, i-coke yepetroleum iba sisongezelelo senzuzo, ixhasa amaxabiso.

III. Iingozi kunye namathuba exesha elizayo

1. Iingozi Ezingalunganga

• Ukwehla okungalindelekanga kwamaxabiso eoyile yamazwe ngamazwe: Ukuba ixabiso eliqhelekileyo leoyile ekrwada yeBrent liwela ngaphantsi kwe-$50 ngomgqomo, amaxabiso e-petroleum coke anokwehla.
• Imfuno ebuthathaka kunokuba bekulindelwe: Umthamo ogqithisileyo kwizixhobo ze-anode zebhetri ye-lithium-ion okanye ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso kwi-aluminium ye-electrolytic (ngokungalindelekanga) kunokunciphisa imfuno.

2. Iingozi ezingaphaya kwamandla

• Ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso ngakumbi kwiindawo zokucocisa ezizimeleyo: Ukuba amazinga okusebenza kwiindawo zokucocisa ezizimeleyo eziseShandong awela ngaphantsi kwama-50%, ukuncitshiswa kobonelelo kunokunyusa amaxabiso.
• Imfuno yamandla amatsha enamandla kunokuba bekulindelwe: Ukuba isabelo sezinto ze-anode zebhetri ye-lithium-ion sinyuka siye kwi-15%, amaxabiso e-petroleum coke ephezulu angadlula i-4,500 yuan/ton.

IV. Isiphelo: Amathuba oLwakhiwo Phakathi kokuguquguquka okuphezulu

Amaxabiso e-coke yepetroleum e-graphised kulindeleke ukuba ahlale eguquguqukayo kakhulu kwiminyaka emibini ezayo, apho i-coke ye-sulfur ephantsi ivela njengeyona nto iphambili ekukhuleni ngenxa yemfuno entsha yamandla, ngelixa i-sulfur coke ephakathi ukuya phezulu iya kubona ukunyuka okuncinci ngenxa yeengxaki kumacandelo emveli. Abatyali-mali kufuneka bajonge ngokusondeleyo:

• Uphuhliso kwicandelo elitsha lamandla (umz., ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi zombane, ukuqaliswa kweeprojekthi zokugcina amandla);
• Amanani okusebenza kweefektri zokucoca zasekhaya (ingakumbi utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo oluchaphazela abacoci abazimeleyo);
• Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso eoyile kumazwe ngamazwe (iziphumo zokudluliselwa kweendleko);
• Ukuqina kokunyanzeliswa komgaqo-nkqubo wokusingqongileyo (okuchaphazela zombini unikezelo kunye nemfuno).

Ngokuchasene neenjongo ze-"dual carbon" zaseTshayina kunye notshintsho lwamandla, imakethi ye-petroleum coke eyenziwe nge-graphitized itshintsha isakhiwo ukusuka kwi-fuel yendabuko ukuya kwizixhobo zamandla amatsha, kunye nokunqongophala kwe-low-sulfur coke enika ukuqina kwamaxabiso ixesha elide.